2026年黄金价格展望：多因素共振，金价仍存上行动力

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to continue being a core asset with safe-haven and anti-inflation properties, influenced by complex factors including global monetary policy and asset flow dynamics, potentially driving prices to new highs in 2026 [1]. Group 1: Global Economic Conditions - The global economy may face "high debt and low growth" pressures in 2026, with the IMF predicting a slowdown in global growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, and U.S. growth dropping to 2.0% [1][3]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with a fiscal deficit exceeding 6% of GDP, raising concerns about debt sustainability, which supports gold's value as a "no credit risk asset" [1][3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be a key variable for gold prices in 2026, with expectations of a shift towards easing despite a projected increase in the median federal funds rate from 3.4% to 3.6% [3][4]. - The potential for a global liquidity resonance due to the Fed's easing cycle may lead to a shift of funds from low-yield assets to gold, reducing the holding costs of gold as a non-yielding asset [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may lead to a restructuring of global order, with "de-dollarization" becoming a strategic choice for many central banks, increasing gold allocations [6][7]. - The rise of non-dollar currencies in global trade settlements may enhance gold's status as a sovereign currency and a safe-haven asset [6]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The structural imbalance between rigid demand growth and insufficient supply elasticity is expected to support gold prices in the long term, with central bank demand for gold remaining high [7][11]. - Central banks' gold holdings have increased from 16% to 24% of their foreign exchange reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to continue increasing their gold reserves [7][11]. Group 5: Market Sensitivity and Volatility - Gold prices are highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions, with potential price increases if the Fed's easing leads to overall market liquidity [12]. - Speculative trading can cause short-term volatility in gold prices, as seen in October 2025 when speculative positions led to a significant price drop [12]. Group 6: Price Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for gold prices in 2026 suggests a potential for "high-level fluctuations" with targets above $4,900 per ounce, and possibly challenging $6,100 per ounce under certain risk scenarios [15]. - Silver is expected to follow gold's performance, with a target of $65 per ounce, but with greater volatility due to its dual industrial and financial attributes [15].