Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-02 08:54Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly Moutai, is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices plummeting and inventory levels rising, leading to a complex bear market situation [1][3]. Industry Challenges - Moutai's wholesale price has dropped below 1600 yuan, with some e-commerce platforms selling it for as low as 1499 yuan, indicating a drastic change from previous demand levels [1][3]. - Distributors are facing severe inventory issues, with average inventory turnover days reaching 900 days, forcing many to sell at lower prices to recover funds, creating a vicious cycle of price declines [5][6]. Financial Performance - The third-quarter reports reveal a significant decline in the performance of 20 listed liquor companies, with total revenue down nearly 6% year-on-year, marking the worst performance in a decade [7]. - Moutai's revenue growth for the third quarter was only 0.56%, and net profit growth was 0.48%, the lowest since 2016 [7]. - Wuliangye's revenue and net profit saw dramatic declines of 52.66% and 65.62%, respectively, with its core product priced below the production cost [9]. Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are divided in their approach to the liquor sector, with some reducing their holdings while others are beginning to buy at lower prices [10][12]. - In the second quarter, active funds significantly reduced their liquor holdings, but by the third quarter, the number of shares held slightly increased, indicating a balance between selling and buying [12]. - Some fund managers view liquor stocks as undervalued with high dividend yields, leading to increased positions in companies like Moutai and Wuliangye [14].