“末日博士”展望2026年美国经济：“金发姑娘”式软着陆成基准情景！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is expected to face volatility in 2025, with significant growth in AI-related investments, but uncertainty from tariffs and policies may suppress growth in the latter half of the year, compounded by the longest government shutdown in history affecting employment and inflation data [2][3] Group 1: Economic Scenarios - The baseline scenario predicts a few months of growth recession followed by recovery, with inflation gradually declining to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, termed the "Goldilocks scenario" [2][3] - The second scenario involves a shallow recession lasting several quarters, with a slower recovery compared to the first scenario [3] - The third scenario, termed "no landing," suggests strong growth without inflation returning to target levels [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Recovery - A strong recovery in mid-2026 could be driven by further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, ongoing fiscal stimulus, robust household and corporate balance sheets, a loose financial environment, and strong capital expenditures related to AI [3][4] - The easing of tariff effects and productivity improvements driven by technology may lead to a decline in inflation after peaking in the following year [4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The possibility of a shallow recession with slow recovery is considered lower than the baseline scenario, but trade policies may still push inflation higher, eroding real wages and consumer confidence [4][5] - Concerns about an AI bubble could impact corporate confidence, potentially leading to a significant stock price correction and weak capital expenditures [4] - The "no landing" scenario remains a possibility, as recent indicators suggest the U.S. economy may be more resilient than previously thought, with tight labor and product markets driving wage increases and overall growth [4][5] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - If the U.S. economy recovers in 2026 and China maintains resilience with close to 5% growth, the global outlook could improve, with both developed and emerging markets expected to achieve stronger growth compared to 2025 [5]