族兴新材IPO上会：或存“规模不经济”瓶颈

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zuxing New Materials, faces significant challenges in its IPO journey due to a fragile supply chain, deteriorating cash flow, volatile profitability, and questionable customer structure, despite its status as a "national-level specialized and innovative small giant" enterprise [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the company's net profit fluctuated from 51.78 million to 58.72 million, with a substantial year-on-year decline of 32.31% in 2024 [1]. - Operating cash flow has been negative for three consecutive years, totaling -63.11 million [1]. - Revenue increased from 629 million to 707 million from 2022 to 2024, but net profit experienced significant volatility, peaking at 86.74 million in 2023 before dropping to 58.72 million in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Position - The company relies heavily on a concentrated supply chain, with over 85% of raw materials sourced from the top five suppliers, and a dependency on Yun Aluminum for 76% to 82% of its needs [2]. - The sales of fine spherical aluminum powder for solar electronic paste plummeted over 70% from 44.48 million in 2022 to 12.15 million in 2024, reflecting structural changes in downstream demand [2]. Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow Issues - The gross margin for fine spherical aluminum powder is alarmingly low at 4%-5%, further declining to 4.07% in 2024, contrasting sharply with the stable gross margin of over 37% for aluminum pigment products [3]. - The company's cash flow situation is dire, with a cash collection ratio below 1, dropping to 0.87 in 2023, and accounts receivable consistently exceeding 30% of revenue [3]. Group 4: R&D and Customer Structure Concerns - R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue decreased from 2.51% to 2.30%, falling below the industry average, indicating a lack of investment in technological advancement [4]. - There are significant concerns regarding customer structure, with instances of multiple customers being signed off by the same individual, raising questions about the authenticity of sales [4]. Group 5: Industry Cyclicality and Investment Risks - The cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metal powder materials industry exacerbates the company's performance volatility, particularly with the decline in demand for solar electronic paste due to technological changes [5]. - The company plans to invest 82.42 million in expanding high-purity fine spherical aluminum powder production, despite the target market being in its infancy and existing capacity utilization dropping from 106.64% to 83.83% [5]. Group 6: Governance and Operational Viability - The company has faced multiple administrative penalties, raising concerns about its internal governance [6]. - There are doubts about the company's ability to sustain operations, as evidenced by ongoing negative cash flow and the need for additional funding despite prior dividend payouts [6].