杠杆资金，清算时刻来临？

Core Viewpoint - The global asset market is experiencing a significant downturn, driven by actions from the US and Japanese central banks, leading to a renewed wave of selling in various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong and A-shares are all in the red, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index dropping over 1% in the afternoon session, and trading volume shrinking to 1.61 trillion yuan [1]. - The US stock market saw all three major indices decline, while the cryptocurrency market experienced a drop of over 6%, marking the largest single-day decline since March, with Bitcoin falling over 30% from its peak of over $126,000 on October 6 [1][2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The recent market pullback is attributed to the Federal Reserve's strategy of "expectation management," where it aims to prevent the market from pricing in a December rate cut too early, thus allowing for a more substantial correction before potentially announcing a rate cut [1][4]. - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated a thorough discussion on the possibility of interest rate hikes in the upcoming December meeting, leading to a significant sell-off in Japanese stocks and bonds [4][5]. Group 3: Interest Rate and Yield Changes - Japanese two-year government bond yields have surged above 1% for the first time since 2008, while the 30-year yield reached 3.41%, the highest since 1999 [4]. - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 7.7 basis points to 4.096%, marking the largest single-day increase since mid-July [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - The reversal of the "yen carry trade" strategy, where investors borrow low-interest yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, is causing market panic, reminiscent of the significant market crash on August 5, 2024 [5][7]. - The current environment suggests a shift towards a low-interest-rate era, prompting a need for diversified asset allocation strategies to adapt to changing market conditions [11][12]. Group 5: Banking Sector Developments - Major Chinese banks have ceased offering five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit, indicating pressure on net interest margins and a scarcity of assets [11]. - The average interest rates for remaining three-year products have dropped to between 1.5% and 1.75%, reflecting the ongoing adjustments in the banking sector [11][12].