林毅夫：制定十五五时期的增长目标，关键要突破几个认识误区

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Professor Lin Yifu at the Fudan Chief Economist Forum highlights the potential economic challenges faced by developed countries, particularly the U.S., and emphasizes the need for China to focus on its own development to counter external pressures [1][5][12]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Developed countries are likely to experience a "lost 20 years" since the 2008 financial crisis, with the U.S. GDP growth rate declining from an average of 3.3% (1960-2008) to 2.1% (2008-2024) [5][7]. - The Eurozone's average growth rate has dropped from 3.1% (1960-2008) to 1.1% (2008-2024), indicating a significant slowdown [5][6]. - The U.S. stock market, exemplified by the Dow Jones index reaching over 46,000 points, suggests a potential bubble similar to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 housing market crash [10][11]. Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. is likely to continue its strategy of suppressing China's growth due to its perception of China as a rising threat, particularly as China's GDP approaches that of the U.S. [12][13]. - The U.S. may reconsider its stance when China's per capita GDP reaches half of that of the U.S., which would signify a significant shift in economic power [13][14]. Group 3: China's Economic Potential - China has the potential for an 8% economic growth rate before 2035, driven by its "latecomer advantage" and the opportunities presented by the Fourth Industrial Revolution [18][19]. - The current per capita GDP of China is approximately one-fourth of that of the U.S., indicating a substantial room for growth [16][18]. Group 4: Factors Affecting Growth - The decline in China's actual growth rate is attributed to external pressures from the U.S. and a lack of economic confidence, rather than internal systemic issues [21][22]. - Misconceptions about the causes of economic slowdown, such as the belief that state-owned enterprises are crowding out private enterprises, need to be addressed to restore confidence [22][24]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To achieve faster economic growth, China should adopt more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies, breaking away from traditional theoretical constraints that limit such actions [28][29]. - Historical examples demonstrate that proactive fiscal policies can effectively stimulate economic growth and should be leveraged to address current challenges [33].