光明乳业再“豪赌”：主业失守三季度陷亏损 5亿元收购小西牛40%股份是否高估？

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bright Dairy, plans to acquire 40% of Qinghai Xiaoxiniu Biological Dairy Co., Ltd. for 500 million yuan, amidst concerns about the high valuation and unmet performance commitments of Xiaoxiniu [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Bright Dairy intends to acquire the remaining 40% of Xiaoxiniu, which specializes in dairy product R&D, production, and sales, including various yogurt and milk products [2]. - The acquisition price of 500 million yuan corresponds to an overall valuation of approximately 1.25 billion yuan for Xiaoxiniu, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of about 13.98 based on projected 2024 net profits [2]. - Xiaoxiniu has failed to meet its performance commitments, achieving only 93.32% of the agreed net profit targets from 2022 to 2024 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Bright Dairy reported a loss of 130 million yuan in Q3, with liquid milk revenue declining by 9.47% in 2024 compared to 2021, and a further 8.57% drop in the first three quarters of this year [1][8]. - The company has high debt levels, with cash barely covering short-term liabilities, raising concerns about the impact of the cash acquisition on its financial health [1][7]. - The overall dairy industry is under pressure, with 63% of listed dairy companies experiencing revenue declines, and 52% seeing decreases in net profit [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The price of raw milk has been on a downward trend for four years, with a cumulative decline of nearly 30%, attributed to stagnant market growth and oversupply due to previous expansions by dairy companies [3]. - Bright Dairy's gross margin has decreased significantly from 31.28% in 2019 to 19.23% in 2024, with Q3 gross margin dropping to 15.04% [8]. - The company faces challenges in product aging and insufficient market penetration outside of East China, contributing to its declining core business performance [8].