70%东北人想买电动车？实际购买却只有四成

Core Insights - The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market in China has surpassed 50% as of January-October 2025, marking a significant milestone, with expectations to exceed 60% in 2026 and reach over 80% by 2040 according to the Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0 [1][2][23] Market Growth - The NEV market penetration rate was only 6% in 2020, entering a rapid growth phase in 2021 with a year-on-year increase of 9 percentage points, maintaining around 10 percentage points of growth annually thereafter [2][23] - By January-October 2025, the NEV market penetration rate reached over 50%, but the growth rate has begun to slow, with only a 6 percentage point increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2][23] Regional Analysis - Not all regions have achieved a penetration rate above 50%, with the Northeast, Northwest, and Southwest regions still dominated by fuel vehicles. The Northeast has the lowest penetration rate at 41% [4][23] - Despite the lower penetration rates, consumer interest in purchasing NEVs remains high, with over 70% of potential buyers in the Southwest, Northwest, and Northeast expressing willingness to buy [7][4] Consumer Preferences - In the Southwest region, preferences for pure electric and range-extended vehicles are higher than the overall market, with TGI values of 111 and 115 respectively. The Northwest shows a preference for plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles, with TGI values of 123 and 117 [7][10] - The primary budget range for potential buyers in all three regions is between 100,000 to 300,000 yuan, with over 70% of consumers falling within this range [9][10] Purchase Intentions - Replacement demand is the main driver for vehicle purchases, particularly in the Southwest where it accounts for 69.2% of intentions. First-time buyers are more prevalent in the Northwest and Northeast [13][23] - The top concerns for consumers regarding NEVs include range degradation, charging convenience, and high battery replacement costs, particularly in colder regions [15][16] Factors Influencing Purchase Decisions - The top five factors that could accelerate or change consumer purchasing decisions include various subsidies, price reductions, new products, free benefits, and brand effects [18][21] - NEV brands are seen as more innovative and open, offering various new services that consumers find appealing, such as free maintenance and high-value after-sales services [21][23] Future Outlook - The NEV market in China is entering a stable development phase, with continued penetration rate increases expected but at a slower pace compared to previous rapid expansions. The market is shifting towards higher quality development [23] - The East China region, with over 30% market share, remains a competitive battleground, while the Southwest, Northwest, and Northeast regions still have significant room for growth in NEV penetration [23]