中国企业出海遇坎？再全球化抱团，反成贸易战，特朗普关税卡脖子

Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - The IMF predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, which is similar to last year's performance, supported by strong consumer spending in the U.S. [1] - In Q2 2025, U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 2.5%, indicating that consumers are still willing to spend [1]. Impact of Tariffs and Corporate Performance - PCE is expected to decline to 2% in Q3 and further to 1.5% in Q4, with the negative effects of tariffs starting to manifest, particularly impacting high-end manufacturing in Europe [3]. - Companies like LVMH reported an 8% revenue drop, and Porsche's operating profit plummeted by 99%, attributed to the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs [3]. Technology Sector and AI Investment - The five major U.S. tech companies (Meta, Google, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon) are projected to increase their capital expenditures by 30% annually by 2027, highlighting the significant role of AI in driving economic growth [3]. - Alibaba's AI-related revenue has seen triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters, with Alibaba Cloud's growth reaching 18% [5]. Global Debt and Economic Risks - Global debt is expected to exceed $337.7 trillion by 2025, with an increase of $21 trillion in the first half of the year, raising concerns about the sustainability of this debt burden [8]. - Many European countries are facing bankruptcy risks, indicating a precarious economic situation [8]. Structural Changes in Global Trade - The world is experiencing a "re-globalization" trend, moving away from "de-globalization," with countries seeking diversified trade partners and reshaping global supply chains [9]. - Tariff policies under the Trump administration have created a more complex global trade environment, with varying rates for allies and other nations [12]. Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining stability in U.S. debt rates and the dollar, with potential fluctuations expected in the market [14]. - Investors are currently wary of the dollar, but a rebound is anticipated, contingent on the Fed's ability to maintain its policy independence [14]. Economic Challenges Ahead - The global economy is facing a slowdown, with high debt levels and reliance on stimulus measures creating a vicious cycle [16]. - Structural inflation persists, making it difficult for governments, businesses, and consumers to navigate a high-interest, high-debt environment [18].