黄金ETF持仓量报告解读（2025-12-2）全球股市承压 黄金进一步上涨

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1050.01 tons of gold as of December 1, 2025, reflecting an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous trading day, driven by rising market risk aversion and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of December 1, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings stand at 1050.01 tons of gold, an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous day [5]. - The increase in gold holdings coincides with a rise in spot gold prices, which reached a six-week high of $4263.94 per ounce during the day [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The global stock markets faced pressure, with heightened risk aversion at the start of December, particularly affecting the Japanese stock market due to hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's governor [5]. - The market has priced in an approximately 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, influenced by recent dovish statements from several policymakers and weak U.S. economic data [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 48.2, below the expected 49 and indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector for nine consecutive months [6]. - The market anticipates a more accommodative monetary policy path, especially following comments from former President Trump regarding potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold is expected to rise further, with the daily chart showing bullish momentum signals and the RSI indicating room for upward movement before entering overbought territory [6]. - The first resistance level is at the December 1 high of $4264, with a significant challenge at the historical peak of $4380 from October 17 [7].