炼化反内卷，行业加速头部化

Core Viewpoint - The refining industry in China is expected to experience a significant turnaround by the second half of 2025, driven by policy changes and the concentration of production capacity among leading enterprises [1]. Group 1: Industry Developments - In late November, China issued early crude oil import quotas for 2026, with major private refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong receiving substantial allocations [1]. - The early batch of quotas for 2026 was notably concentrated among a few leading companies, contrasting with the more fragmented distribution seen in 2025, indicating a shift towards advanced capacity and industry consolidation [1][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and industry associations have implemented policies to promote a trend of "anti-involution" in the refining sector, aiming to streamline operations and enhance efficiency [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Measures - A meeting organized by MIIT on October 29 focused on preventing excessive competition in the PTA and bottle-grade polyester slice industries, with major private enterprises required to submit data on production capacity and measures to avoid industry involution [3]. - Legal measures, including energy consumption limits for refining processes, have been introduced to address overcapacity and losses in the industry, with expectations that these will accelerate the exit of outdated and smaller-scale production facilities [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global economic downturn since 2022 has impacted demand in the polyester sector, which is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, leading to a phase of inventory competition [3]. - The geopolitical landscape has influenced energy storage demands, reducing cost pressures on the refining industry and enhancing expectations for a market reversal [8]. - The overall investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector has declined, indicating a nearing end to the capital expenditure cycle and a gradual recovery in supply dynamics [8].