车市消失的“翘尾”

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a "folding sensation," with significant disparities in sales performance among major players, indicating a shift towards a more competitive environment [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Performance - In November, BYD achieved sales exceeding 480,000 units, with overseas sales surpassing 130,000 units, alleviating concerns about domestic sales pressure [2] - Geely's sales reached 310,000 units in November, with a 53% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales, indicating a successful transition to new energy [2] - Leap Motor reported a 75% year-on-year increase in sales, aiming for one million units next year, while Hongmeng Zhixing sold 81,864 units, marking a record high for monthly deliveries [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall retail data for the passenger car market showed a decline in sales year-on-year and month-on-month from November 1 to 23, indicating a cooling market despite strong performances from leading companies [1][4] - The disappearance of the year-end sales surge is a concerning signal, as traditional strategies like price cuts and promotions failed to boost sales [4] - The shift in consumer psychology is evident, with a decrease in demand for hybrid models and diminishing effects of price wars, leading to a more challenging environment for lower-end models [4][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The automotive market is expected to face intensified competition by 2026, with the reintroduction of a 5% purchase tax on new energy vehicles, increasing consumer costs [6][7] - UBS predicts that the overall growth rate for passenger car wholesale will slow to 3% by 2026, while electric vehicle growth will decelerate to 15%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][7] - Companies are urged to consolidate resources to withstand the upcoming challenges, as the era of rapid growth is over, and survival will depend on efficiency and market positioning [7][8]