每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-12-02）

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with two additional cuts expected in June and July 2026, bringing the final rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25% [1] - The expectation of a rate cut is influenced by a weak labor market and recent comments from policymakers suggesting an earlier-than-expected easing [1] - Most major global investment banks anticipate a 25 basis point cut next week, with only a few, such as Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered, predicting rates will remain unchanged [1] Group 2: Silver Market Outlook - Spartan Capital Securities forecasts that silver prices could exceed $75 per ounce, driven by optimistic market sentiment and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Silver has seen a significant increase, more than doubling in price this year, and is expected to outperform gold in the upcoming trading sessions [1] Group 3: Japanese Yen and Bank of Japan Policy - Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ highlight that the Japanese yen may strengthen further due to rising expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike, following comments from the bank's governor [1] - Barclays notes an increased likelihood of a rate hike in December rather than January, with a terminal rate forecast of 1.0% by January 2027 [2] - Analysts from OCBC Bank emphasize that while the yen is being supported by rate hike expectations, sustained recovery will require more decisive actions from the Bank of Japan [3] Group 4: AI Industry and Investment Trends - CITIC Securities identifies a 60% probability that OpenAI will face operational challenges and that investment in the AI sector will slow down, marking this as the baseline scenario [4] - The report suggests that discussions around an "AI bubble" are becoming unavoidable due to increasing investment sizes and unclear return rates [4] Group 5: New Energy Sector - Galaxy Securities indicates that the new energy sector is poised to open a second growth space, particularly as competitive pricing mechanisms are introduced [5] - The report suggests that integrating new energy with green hydrogen and computing capabilities could enhance efficient utilization [5] Group 6: Metal Industry Outlook - Huatai Securities predicts that supply-demand improvements will characterize the metal industry in 2026, with potential increases in LME gold prices above $4,800 per ounce [5] - The report anticipates a stronger performance for silver compared to gold, driven by global monetary easing and economic recovery [5]