12月决议在即，美联储对中性利率陷入十余年最严重分歧！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant divergence regarding the neutral interest rate, which is impacting policy direction this month after more than a one percentage point rate cut since 2012 [1][2]. Group 1: Divergence in Neutral Rate Estimates - The estimates of the neutral interest rate among Federal Reserve officials have shown the largest divergence since predictions began in 2012, with a range from 2.6% to 3.9% [1][2]. - This divergence reflects a fundamental disagreement among decision-makers on whether the economy requires more stimulus or should be restrained due to inflation concerns [1][2]. - The current situation makes each subsequent rate cut increasingly challenging, as the benchmark rate approaches the upper limit of the neutral rate estimates [2]. Group 2: The Concept of Neutral Rate - The neutral interest rate, also known as r-star, is a theoretical concept that cannot be directly observed and has been a topic of intense debate for over a century [2][3]. - Factors influencing the neutral rate include demographic changes, technology, productivity, and debt burdens, which affect savings and investment patterns [3]. Group 3: Perspectives from Federal Reserve Officials - New York Fed President Williams emphasizes the importance of accurately diagnosing changes in the neutral rate and unemployment, citing historical examples of inflation expectations [3]. - Some officials prefer to assess the neutral rate through its effects rather than direct observation, with varying interpretations of financial indicators [4]. - There is a lack of consensus on the future direction of the neutral rate, with some officials predicting an increase due to advancements in productivity, while others argue for a more accommodative policy stance [5]. Group 4: Decision-Making Based on Actual Data - Actual economic data, such as labor and price data, will drive policy decisions, despite the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the neutral rate [6]. - The upcoming leadership changes in the Federal Reserve may lead to a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy, as new decision-makers may estimate the current neutral rate to be lower [6].