中性利率迷雾：美联储陷入十年未见的激烈分歧

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding the "neutral interest rate," with estimates ranging from 2.6% to 3.9%, marking the widest divergence since 2012 [1][2] - This disagreement reflects fundamental differences in the assessment of the current U.S. economy, particularly whether more stimulus is needed to support the labor market or if measures should be taken to curb inflation and potential tariff impacts [1][2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged strong disagreements within the committee on balancing "price stability" and "maximum employment," leading to a rare public policy debate on whether to cut rates again in the upcoming meeting [1][2] Group 2 - The divergence in estimates of the neutral interest rate among Federal Reserve officials has sharply increased over the past year, with the current range being unprecedented [2] - Some committee members with a more hawkish stance may view the upper limit of the estimated range as a binding ceiling, complicating future rate cut decisions [2] - The concept of the neutral interest rate, also known as "r-star," has been a theoretical challenge for economists for over a century, despite its importance in modern central banking [2][3] Group 3 - New York Fed President John Williams emphasizes the critical nature of accurately diagnosing the neutral interest rate and natural unemployment rate, warning of potential severe consequences from misjudgments [3] - Historical lessons from the 1960s and 1970s highlight the risks of incorrect assessments of these key parameters, which can lead to runaway inflation expectations [3] - The ongoing debate about the location of "r-star" is crucial not only for upcoming interest rate decisions but also for determining the appropriate economic trajectory for the U.S. and global economies [3]