经合组织最新预测：全球降息潮将于2026年终结！

Group 1 - The OECD predicts that major economies will end the current interest rate cut cycle by the end of 2026, indicating limited room for further policy easing despite slowing growth expectations [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates only twice before the end of 2026, maintaining the federal funds rate between 3.25% and 3.5% throughout 2027 [2] - The OECD forecasts that the Eurozone and Canada will not further cut interest rates, while Japan will gradually tighten its monetary policy as local inflation stabilizes around 2% [2] Group 2 - The global economy has performed better than expected in resisting the impact of tariffs, with GDP growth projected at 3.2% in 2025, slowing to 2.9% in 2026, and rebounding to 3.1% in 2027 [3] - The increase in AI-related investments is credited with boosting industrial production in the US and many Asian economies [3] - The OECD has raised its growth forecast for the US in 2025 to 2%, up from a previous estimate of 1.8%, with a gradual reduction in reliance on AI [3] Group 3 - The OECD warns that a decline in optimism regarding AI could lead to sudden asset price revaluations, exacerbated by forced asset sales from non-bank financial institutions [4] - Governments are urged to address rising debt burdens during this relatively stable period, with only a few countries planning significant fiscal tightening in the next two years [4] - Countries like Germany have room to increase debt and maintain high defense spending for a period, but pressures from healthcare, care, and climate spending will eventually exhaust fiscal flexibility [4]