“三重打击”来袭！机构预警：美元季节性疲软或在未来几周加剧

Group 1 - Multiple institutions warn that the US dollar may face a "triple blow" in the coming weeks, exacerbating its seasonal weakness [1] - Factors impacting the dollar include a potential Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, the appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, and a strengthening yen due to a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] - Steven Barrow from Standard Bank indicates that the combination of an unfavorable tariff ruling and Hassett's leadership could significantly impact the dollar, potentially manifesting by early 2026 [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank believes there is room for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, and stronger economic data from other countries may weaken the dollar by year-end [2] - Tim Baker from Deutsche Bank notes that December has historically been the worst month for the dollar, as traders typically sell dollars to balance gains from US assets [2] - The dollar index has risen by 1.5% this quarter, but Baker suggests it could fall back to third-quarter lows, approximately 2% below current levels [2] Group 3 - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve Chair adds another pressure point for the dollar, as he is perceived to support aggressive rate cuts [4] - Market expectations suggest that under Hassett's leadership, the Federal Reserve's policy may become more dovish, potentially pushing the dollar below the four-year low of approximately 1.19 dollars per euro [4] - Historical data indicates that rising interest rates in Japan typically lead to a significant appreciation of the yen, particularly against the dollar, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point hike this month [4]