人民币走强有助提振资本市场信心 2026年有望继续呈现双向波动

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD has garnered significant market attention, attributed to a combination of domestic economic stability and external monetary policy shifts [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - On December 1, the People's Bank of China reported the RMB's central parity rate at 7.0759 against the USD, marking a 30 basis point increase from the previous trading day, reaching its highest level in over a year [1]. - In November, the RMB appreciated nearly 0.48% against the USD, with an intra-day peak of 7.0738, the highest since October of the previous year [1]. - Factors contributing to the RMB's strength include a solid domestic economic foundation, with a bank settlement surplus of USD 80.9 billion in the first ten months, and a resilient export sector driving continuous demand for currency exchange [1][3]. Group 2: Impact of US Monetary Policy - Recent statements from several Federal Reserve officials have reinforced expectations for policy easing, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [2][3]. - The Fed's dovish stance, including two rate cuts since September and expectations for further easing, supports the RMB's appreciation against the backdrop of a declining USD index [1][2]. Group 3: Implications for A-shares - The strengthening RMB is expected to positively impact A-shares by enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, potentially leading to increased foreign capital inflows [4]. - Historical data indicates that previous RMB appreciation cycles have coincided with bullish trends in A-shares, with the CSI 300 index showing a median annualized return of 29.8% during such periods [4]. - However, the relationship between stock and currency markets has weakened in recent years, with A-share performance increasingly dependent on economic fundamentals and industry competitiveness [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB and Economic Resilience - Short-term forecasts suggest the RMB will maintain a strong position, with limited likelihood of breaching the 7.0 mark before year-end, while medium to long-term trends may benefit from improved cross-border payment systems and accelerated de-dollarization [3][4]. - Analysts predict that by 2026, the RMB may experience a dual-directional fluctuation around a reasonable equilibrium level, supported by robust domestic economic fundamentals and effective regulatory measures [4].