贝莱德转向看空长期美债，警告AI融资潮或推高借贷成本

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock's Investment Institute has shifted its stance to bearish on U.S. long-term government bonds, citing concerns over rising borrowing costs due to an impending wave of AI-related financing and the sustainability of U.S. government debt burdens [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Long-Term Government Bonds - BlackRock has downgraded its investment rating for long-term U.S. government bonds from "neutral" to "underweight" for the next 6 to 12 months, anticipating significant debt issuance driven by AI investments [1] - The firm warns that the upcoming AI financing wave could lead to increased overall borrowing costs in the U.S. [2] Group 2: Debt Market Adjustments - In addition to U.S. bonds, BlackRock is also reducing its holdings in Japanese government bonds due to expected rising interest rates and increased government bond issuance [1] - Conversely, the investment rating for emerging market hard currency debt has been upgraded from "underweight" to "overweight," based on limited issuance and healthier government balance sheets [1] Group 3: Debt Risks and Economic Impact - The simultaneous rise in public and private sector borrowing is expected to exert significant upward pressure on interest rates, with U.S. national debt surpassing $38 trillion [2] - The firm highlights that the structural increase in capital costs may raise the economic threshold for AI investments and potentially suppress broader economic activities [2] Group 4: Stock Market Outlook - Despite a cautious outlook on the bond market, BlackRock remains optimistic about AI-related investments driving U.S. stock market growth in 2025 [3] - The firm anticipates that AI-driven revenue growth will broadly boost the economy, although the benefits will vary significantly across different companies and sectors [3]