多项因素推动本轮人民币升值 “双向波动”或是未来常态

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate against the USD have garnered significant market attention, with the RMB appreciating to a high not seen in over a year, driven by both internal and external factors [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - On December 1, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.0759, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.0789, marking a significant high [1]. - The RMB's appreciation is supported by the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) stable exchange rate policy and seasonal demand for currency conversion as year-end approaches [2][3]. - The RMB is expected to experience moderate appreciation towards the end of the year and into 2026, influenced by seasonal factors and the anticipated easing of US monetary policy [3][5]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - A weaker USD, driven by the Federal Reserve's shift towards potential interest rate cuts, has created a favorable environment for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [2]. - The attractiveness of domestic assets has increased due to strong performance in China's A-shares, leading to higher foreign capital inflows and demand for RMB [2]. - The PBOC's gradual adjustments to the RMB's central parity rate signal a commitment to maintaining a stable exchange rate, which has encouraged market confidence [2][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB's long-term appreciation is supported by expected improvements in China's economic fundamentals, contrasting with a projected downturn in the US financial cycle [3]. - The ongoing structural adjustments in the Chinese economy and the internationalization of the RMB are expected to foster a positive cycle of appreciation and demand for RMB assets [3]. - The PBOC aims to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate while preventing excessive fluctuations, indicating a preference for orderly market conditions rather than rapid appreciation [4].