铜价创历史新高，高盛：全球市场进入“循环融涨”行情？

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing a significant restructuring driven by expectations of U.S. tariffs and structural supply tensions globally, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of inventory depletion and price increases [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs commodity experts warn that arbitrage trading based on tariff expectations is creating a cycle of "inventory depletion—widening price spreads—accelerated stockpiling," pushing global copper prices into historical high ranges [1]. - LME copper prices have seen a cumulative increase of 30% this year, with prices reaching $11,294.50 per ton, while Comex copper futures rose by 1.6% [1]. - The tightening of LME inventories, combined with active arbitrage trading in the COMEX market, is strengthening the backwardation structure, further stimulating arbitrage activities [4]. Group 2: Supply Challenges - Major copper mines are facing production challenges, including supply constraints at the Grasberg mine, declining inventories at Kakalua, operational friction at Codelco, weak output at Collahuasi, and low extraction rates at the QB project [4]. - The current supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist in the coming quarters, particularly as global copper mine supplies remain constrained and U.S. infrastructure demand remains strong [7]. Group 3: U.S. Market Influence - The U.S. is becoming the marginal price setter in the copper market, with predictions that copper prices could reach $12,000 to $13,000 per ton due to rising U.S. import demand [5]. - As the Chinese market reopens after the Spring Festival, it may face a significant shortage of copper cathodes, exacerbating the supply situation [5]. Group 4: Long-term Demand Drivers - Investors are entering the copper market not only for profitable U.S. arbitrage but also betting on long-term structural demand driven by the next wave of AI computing and global grid upgrades [6]. - The current market dynamics are seen as one of the most compelling trades in the last 30 years, according to industry experts [6].