比特币再遭大跌，大跌只是开始，加密风暴将冲击全球市场

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant collapse, with Bitcoin dropping 6% to below $86,000 and Ethereum falling 7% to around $2,800, leading to widespread declines in major altcoins [1][3]. Market Impact - The turmoil in the cryptocurrency market quickly spread to traditional financial markets, causing the Nasdaq 100 futures to drop by 1%, particularly affecting tech stocks [3]. - MicroStrategy, a major holder of Bitcoin with $56 billion in assets, indicated that they might be forced to sell part of their holdings if the mNAV ratio turns negative, which is currently at 1.19, close to the warning threshold [3][13]. - The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks has intensified, with Bitcoin's sudden drop reversing a positive market sentiment that followed Nvidia's strong earnings report, ultimately leading to a 300-point decline in the Dow [3][13]. Preceding Indicators - The collapse was foreshadowed by a $19 billion leveraged liquidation in early October, which initiated a selling spree that saw Bitcoin drop 16.7% in November [3][6]. - Despite a brief rebound above $90,000, the recovery was weak and unsustainable [3]. Structural Weaknesses - The market is facing structural vulnerabilities, with a significant lack of new capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a recent net outflow exceeding $1 billion in a single week [6][8]. - The tightening of global liquidity, driven by signals from the Bank of Japan and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, has put additional pressure on high-risk assets [6][8]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory concerns are also impacting market confidence, with warnings from the People's Bank of China about the risks associated with virtual currencies and the EU's MiCA legislation imposing strict limits on stablecoins [9]. - The downgrade of USDT's stability rating by S&P Global Ratings raises concerns about collateral adequacy, which could undermine the entire crypto ecosystem reliant on stablecoins [9]. Market Dynamics - The simultaneous decline of both risk assets like Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets like gold indicates a systemic liquidity contraction, forcing investors to liquidate assets for cash [11]. - The recent downturn has led to a significant number of liquidations, with over 260,000 traders losing approximately $941 million in just 24 hours [8]. Future Outlook - The market is now focused on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and inflation data, which will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [13]. - The potential selling pressure from MicroStrategy looms over the market, and without new capital inflows, the sustainability of any price recovery remains in doubt [13].