Electric Utilities And Pinnacle West In A Popping AI Bubble

Core Viewpoint - The utilities sector is expected to perform well despite the potential popping of the AI bubble, with geographically advantaged utilities like Pinnacle West (PNW) likely to outperform [1][5]. Impact of AI Bubble on Utilities - The demand for electricity from utilities is significantly driven by the buildout of AI data centers, leading to substantial project pipelines ranging from $5 billion to $50 billion for each utility [1]. - If the AI bubble bursts, there are several potential scenarios that could unfold, including a slowdown in data center construction, increased competition leading to lower returns on invested capital (ROIC), and necessary spending to remain competitive despite low ROIC [3][4][5]. Demand and Growth Projections - The demand for electricity is expected to remain high even if the AI bubble pops, particularly under scenarios where competition and necessary spending continue [5]. - PNW anticipates an incremental load of 24.5 Gigawatts due to industrial growth and AI buildout, with 4.5 Gigawatts already committed [30][34]. Valuation and Market Position - PNW is currently trading at 11.69X forward EV/EBITDA and 19.18X 2026 normalized earnings, which is in line with sector averages [37]. - The recent pullback in PNW's stock price presents a buying opportunity, as the long-term fundamentals remain strong despite short-term earnings fluctuations [24][39]. Competitive Landscape - The utilities sector is bifurcated, with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) experiencing bubble valuations while regulated electric utilities are seen as more stable investments [41]. - PNW's service area in Phoenix is highlighted as a major growth hub, benefiting from significant industrial development and demand for electricity [28][25].