Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (NYSE:PNW) is included among the Best Stocks for a Dividend Achievers List. UBS Makes Modest Price Target Increase on Pinnacle West (PNW) On December 17, UBS nudged its price target on Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (NYSE:PNW) up to $95 from $94. The firm kept a Neutral rating on the stock. During the company’s third-quarter 2025 earnings call, management laid out plans for a new generation site near Gila Bend. The project could add as much as 2,000 megawatts of natu ...

Core Insights - The Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA) has reappointed three board members, effective January 1, 2026, to support its mission during a critical period for the U.S. clean energy transition [1][2][3] Group 1: Board Reappointments - Jeff Guldner, former CEO of Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, and Bryan Hannegan, president and CEO of Holy Cross Energy, will each serve a second consecutive three-year term after joining the Board in 2022 [1] - Paul Lau, CEO and general manager of the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, has been re-elected for an additional one-year term, extending his 11-year tenure on the Board [1] Group 2: Expertise and Contributions - The board members bring diverse expertise: Paul Lau has extensive public power leadership and grid operations experience, Jeff Guldner has guided large investor-owned utilities through growth and transformation, and Bryan Hannegan has a strong background in grid modernization and energy systems innovation [3] - Their collective insight is expected to enhance SEPA's ability to support its members and navigate the evolving energy landscape [3] Group 3: SEPA's Mission and Membership - SEPA aims to accelerate the transition to a clean, affordable, and resilient electricity system, engaging over 1,000 members, including utilities, policymakers, regulators, and technology companies [4] - The organization focuses on education, collaboration, and applied research to advance innovative solutions in the energy sector [4]

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW), headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, provides retail and wholesale electric services. Valued at $10.5 billion by market cap, the company provides retail and wholesale electric service to most of the State of Arizona. PNW is also involved in real estate development activities in the western U.S. Companies worth $10 billion or more are generally described as “large-cap stocks,” and PNW perfectly fits that description, with its market cap exceeding this mark, underscor ...

Core Viewpoint - The utilities sector is expected to perform well despite the potential popping of the AI bubble, with geographically advantaged utilities like Pinnacle West (PNW) likely to outperform [1][5]. Impact of AI Bubble on Utilities - The demand for electricity from utilities is significantly driven by the buildout of AI data centers, leading to substantial project pipelines ranging from $5 billion to $50 billion for each utility [1]. - If the AI bubble bursts, there are several potential scenarios that could unfold, including a slowdown in data center construction, increased competition leading to lower returns on invested capital (ROIC), and necessary spending to remain competitive despite low ROIC [3][4][5]. Demand and Growth Projections - The demand for electricity is expected to remain high even if the AI bubble pops, particularly under scenarios where competition and necessary spending continue [5]. - PNW anticipates an incremental load of 24.5 Gigawatts due to industrial growth and AI buildout, with 4.5 Gigawatts already committed [30][34]. Valuation and Market Position - PNW is currently trading at 11.69X forward EV/EBITDA and 19.18X 2026 normalized earnings, which is in line with sector averages [37]. - The recent pullback in PNW's stock price presents a buying opportunity, as the long-term fundamentals remain strong despite short-term earnings fluctuations [24][39]. Competitive Landscape - The utilities sector is bifurcated, with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) experiencing bubble valuations while regulated electric utilities are seen as more stable investments [41]. - PNW's service area in Phoenix is highlighted as a major growth hub, benefiting from significant industrial development and demand for electricity [28][25].

Core Insights - Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) is a utility holding company based in Phoenix, Arizona, with a market capitalization of $10.6 billion, providing retail and wholesale electric services primarily in Arizona [1] - PNW's stock has underperformed compared to the broader market and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), with a 3% decline over the past year versus a 13.7% increase in the S&P 500 and a 13% gain in XLU [2][3] Financial Performance - For Q3, PNW reported revenue of $1.8 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, while earnings per share (EPS) rose slightly to $3.39 [4] - Analysts project a 5% decline in PNW's EPS for the current fiscal year, estimating it to be $4.98 on a diluted basis [5] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Among 18 analysts covering PNW, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with five "Strong Buy" ratings and 13 "Holds" [5] - The current price target from analysts is $97, indicating an 8.8% potential upside, while the mean price target of $97.50 suggests a 9.4% premium, and the highest target of $115 indicates a potential upside of 29% [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings of $3.39 per share for Q3 2025, a modest increase of $0.02 year-over-year, primarily due to higher transmission revenues and robust sales growth across customer classes [10][11] - The updated 2025 EPS guidance was raised from a range of $4.40-$4.60 per share to $4.90-$5.10 per share, reflecting strong sales growth and increased transmission revenues [11][12] - Weather-normalized sales growth was reported at 5.4% for the quarter, with 6.6% growth in commercial and industrial (C&I) sales and 4.3% growth in residential sales [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Palo Verde Generating Station operated at a 100% capacity factor throughout the summer, contributing to strong operational performance [5] - The company experienced a weather-normalized sales growth of 5.4%, with residential sales growth at 4.3% in Q3 2025 [5][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Arizona's population growth remains robust, driven by major employers expanding operations, which is a key factor in the demand for skilled labor [5] - Maricopa County was named the top county in the nation for economic development in 2025, highlighting the region's success in attracting high-growth industries [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term investments in transmission and baseload generation to secure a reliable grid and meet rising customer demand [7][8] - A new generation site near Gila Bend is planned, which could add up to 2,000 MW of natural gas generation to support existing and new customers [7] - The company is working on a subscription model to contract for phase two capacity, ensuring that growth pays for growth while maintaining affordability [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to meet rising customer demand and navigate a dynamic operating environment, emphasizing the importance of strategic investments [4][9] - The company anticipates continued robust customer and sales growth, with a forecasted long-term sales growth range raised from 4%-6% to 5%-7% through 2030 [14][16] Other Important Information - The company is actively engaged in a pending rate case, with a hearing expected in Q2 of the following year [8] - The capital plan through 2028 includes critical strategic investments in transmission and generation to support reliability and growth [14][15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Visibility on 2029 and 2030 gas build - Management confirmed that the pipeline is expected to be in service in 2029, with key milestones being monitored to ensure timely delivery [19][20] Question: Progress on the subscription model - Active dialogues are ongoing with counterparties for the 1.2 GW subscription opportunity, aligning with the timing of the Desert Sun project [23][24] Question: Clarification on equity dilution and needs - The company has substantially de-risked the equity need for 2026, with a focus on reducing regulatory lag and improving retained earnings [31][32] Question: Year-over-year change in sales growth as an EPS driver - The year-over-year variability in large load customers contributes to differences in EPS magnitude uplift from sales growth [62][63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings of $3.39 per share for Q3 2025, a modest increase of $0.02 year over year, primarily due to higher transmission revenues and robust sales growth across customer classes [10][11] - The updated 2025 EPS guidance was raised from a range of $4.40-$4.60 per share to $4.90-$5.10 per share, reflecting strong sales growth and increased transmission revenues [11][12] - Weather-normalized sales growth was reported at 5.4% for the quarter, with 6.6% growth in commercial and industrial (C&I) sales and 4.3% growth in residential sales [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Palo Verde Generating Station operated at a 100% capacity factor throughout the summer, contributing to strong operational performance [5] - The company experienced a weather-normalized sales growth of 5.4%, with residential sales growth at 4.3% in Q3 2025 [5][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Arizona's population growth remains robust, driven by major employers expanding operations, which is a key factor in the demand for skilled labor [5] - Maricopa County was named the top county in the nation for economic development in 2025, highlighting the region's success in attracting high-growth industries [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term investments in transmission and baseload generation to secure a reliable grid and meet rising customer demand [7][8] - A new generation site near Gila Bend is planned, which could add up to 2,000 megawatts of natural gas generation to support growth [7] - The company is working on a subscription model to contract for phase two capacity, ensuring that growth pays for growth while maintaining affordability [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term economic vitality supported by Arizona's ability to attract and retain high-quality talent [5] - The company anticipates continued robust customer and sales growth, with weather-normalized sales expected to grow at 4%-6% in 2026 [13][14] - Management acknowledged regulatory lag as a factor but remains confident in the long-term financial strategy [15][16] Other Important Information - The company is actively engaged in a pending rate case, with a hearing expected in Q2 of the following year [8] - The capital plan through 2028 includes critical strategic investments in transmission and generation to support reliability and growth [14][15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Visibility on 2029 and 2030 gas build - Management confirmed that the pipeline is expected to be in service in 2029, with a phased approach to generation capacity projects [19][20] Question: Progress on the subscription model - Active dialogues are ongoing with counterparties to match the subscription model with desired in-service timing [23] Question: Clarification on equity dilution and needs - The company has substantially de-risked the equity need for 2026, with a focus on reducing regulatory lag and improving retained earnings [31][32] Question: Annual transmission CapEx post-2028 - Specifics on post-2028 plans have not been laid out, but the company anticipates ongoing investments in strategic transmission projects [34][36] Question: Confidence in extending rate-based growth - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth trajectory, supported by ongoing projects and customer demand [37][39] Question: Year-over-year change in sales growth as an EPS driver - Variability in large load customers contributes to differences in EPS magnitude uplift from sales growth [62][63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings of $3.39 per share for Q3 2025, a modest increase of $0.02 year over year, primarily due to higher transmission revenues and robust sales growth across customer classes [10][11] - The updated 2025 EPS guidance was raised from a range of $4.40-$4.60 per share to $4.90-$5.10 per share, reflecting strong sales growth and increased transmission revenues [11][12] - Weather-normalized sales growth was reported at 5.4% for the quarter, with residential sales growth at 4.3% [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced 6.6% growth in commercial and industrial (C&I) sales, supported by large load customers, while residential sales growth was 4.3% [11][12] - Year-to-date residential sales growth stands at 2%, exceeding expectations [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Arizona's population growth remains robust, driven by major employers expanding operations and increasing demand for skilled labor [5] - Maricopa County was named the top county in the nation for economic development in 2025, highlighting the region's success in attracting high-growth industries [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term investments in transmission and baseload generation to secure a reliable grid, with plans for a new generation site near Gila Bend that could add up to 2,000 megawatts of natural gas generation [7][8] - The Desert Sun Power Plant project is designed to serve both existing customers and rising demand from large energy users, with phase one expected to begin serving customers by late 2030 [7][8] - The company is actively working on a subscription model to contract for phase two capacity, ensuring growth pays for growth while maintaining affordability [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to meet rising customer demand and navigate operational challenges, including storms and extreme heat [4][5] - The company anticipates robust customer and sales growth, with weather-normalized sales expected to grow at 4%-6% in 2026 [12][14] - Long-term EPS growth guidance remains at 5%-7%, with a focus on reducing regulatory lag and improving recovery timing [14][16] Other Important Information - The company is engaged in a pending rate case, with a hearing expected in Q2 of the following year [8] - Significant investments in transmission are underway, with cumulative transmission CapEx projected at $2.6 billion through 2028 and over $6 billion through 2034 [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Visibility on 2029 and 2030 gas build - The pipeline is expected to be in service in 2029, with the first phase of the Desert Sun project necessary to support committed customers expected in service by 2030 [18][19] Question: Progress on the subscription model - Active dialogues are ongoing with counterparties for the 1.2 gigawatt opportunity, aligning with the development of phase two of Desert Sun [24] Question: Clarification on equity dilution and needs - The company has substantially de-risked the equity need for 2026, with a total forecasted equity need of $1 billion-$1.2 billion for 2026-2028 [30][31] Question: Year-over-year change in sales growth as an EPS driver - The year-over-year variability in large load customers contributes to differences in EPS magnitude uplift from sales growth [57] Question: Annual transmission CapEx post-2028 - Specifics of the plan post-2028 have not been laid out, but the company anticipates ongoing investments in strategic transmission projects [33][34]

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Financial Performance & Guidance - The company projects 2025 adjusted gross margin to be between $3.21 billion and $3.28 billion[8] - The company anticipates 2025 EPS guidance to be between $4.90 and $5.10[8] - The company projects 2026 adjusted gross margin to be between $3.31 billion and $3.37 billion[11] - The company anticipates 2026 EPS guidance to be between $4.55 and $4.75[11] - The company targets long-term EPS growth of 5%-7% off original 2024 midpoint[12] Capital Investments & Rate Base - The company plans a total APS capital investment of $10.35 billion from 2025-2028[15] - The company projects the ACC rate base to be $15.7 billion in 2028[17] - The company projects the FERC rate base to be $4.0 billion in 2028[17] Regulatory & Operational Highlights - The company's 2025 rate case requests a net revenue increase of $580 million, impacting customers by 13.99% on day 1[40] - The company expects core O&M to remain flat with a rapidly growing customer base[23] - The company estimates cash from operations to be approximately $3.8 billion and total capital investment to be between $2.6 billion and $2.9 billion[25] Sales Growth - The company expects weather-normalized retail electricity sales growth of 4%-6% in 2026, including 3%-5% from large C&I customers[12] - The company's residential customer growth is projected to be 1.5%-2.5% in 2026[12]