华尔街机构警告：经济韧性叠加AI浪潮，做空美股正变成高危交易

Core Insights - Short sellers in the U.S. stock market faced significant losses, totaling approximately $80 billion in market value during the last week of November, nearly erasing the $95 billion in profits accumulated over the previous three weeks [1][2] - The resilience of the U.S. economy, combined with a surge in AI investments, is creating a strong fundamental backdrop that supports corporate earnings prospects and may drive stock prices higher [1][3] Market Dynamics - Hedge funds are rapidly closing their short positions in U.S. stock indices and ETFs, with the pace reaching the fastest level in five months, indicating a shift in market sentiment and capital flows [1][2] - The expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting further diminishes the rationale for short selling [1][4] Economic Fundamentals - Despite concerns about inflation and a softening labor market, the U.S. economy remains robust, particularly in consumer spending, which saw a 4.1% year-over-year increase during Black Friday [3] - Predictions indicate a 12.5% growth in corporate profits over the next 12 months, supported by increased consumer spending and investments in AI, which are expected to enhance productivity [3][5] Seasonal Trends - Historical data suggests that December is typically a strong month for the S&P 500, with an average increase of 1.4% and a 73% probability of gains, making it a seasonally favorable period for the stock market [5][6] AI Investment Sentiment - The ongoing enthusiasm for AI investments is a crucial pillar supporting the market, with investors viewing AI as a long-term growth driver [5][6] - Short selling requires high confidence in either a significant economic downturn or a major shift in AI-related capital expenditure, making it increasingly challenging in the current market environment [5][6]