21评论丨涨幅超黄金，白银市场或仍有韧性

Core Viewpoint - Silver futures and spot prices have reached historical highs in 2023 due to a combination of supply-demand gaps and expectations of interest rate cuts, with significant price increases outpacing gold [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 1, 2023, London spot silver and futures prices were $57.49/oz and $59.14/oz, reflecting increases of 95.5% and 97.8% year-to-date, surpassing gold's price increase of 60.18% for spot and 60.16% for futures [2]. - In Shanghai, silver spot and futures prices have also seen substantial increases of 74.46% and 74.39% respectively, outpacing gold's price growth [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has reached its lowest point since August 2021, indicating that silver's price increase is relatively higher than that of gold [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - The total open interest in silver futures and options has risen to its highest point of the year, driven by bullish sentiment amid expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]. - As of October 14, 2025, total open interest in COMEX silver futures and options was 241,700 contracts, a 35.08% increase from the beginning of the year [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is significantly higher than for gold, with silver accounting for 54.76% of total demand in 2023, compared to gold's 6.38% [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Global silver supply has remained relatively stable, with a total supply of 1.011 billion ounces in 2023, while demand has outstripped this supply, resulting in a negative supply gap of 184 million ounces [6]. - China's silver market has shown signs of accelerating inventory depletion, with a significant increase in silver spot outflows and a sharp decline in futures inventory [5][6]. - As of December 1, 2023, COMEX silver futures inventory was 456 million ounces, up 42.99% year-to-date, but down 9.65% from the year's peak [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The expectation of a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could enhance silver's investment and speculative appeal, while the growing industrial demand for silver in technology applications may further support its price [6][7]. - The anticipated peak in silver demand for solar panel production is projected to be around 7,000 tons, although current usage remains high [7].