明确加息信号：日本央行为何急切转向？

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is signaling a potential interest rate hike in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, which has led to immediate market reactions, including a strengthening of the yen and rising long-term bond yields [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The consumer price index in Japan rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, exceeding the Bank of Japan's inflation target of 2% for over three years [3]. - The Bank of Japan has revised its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, predicting increases of 1.8% and 2.0% respectively, indicating a realistic path to achieving its inflation target [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement from the Bank of Japan's governor, the yen appreciated from approximately 157 yen per dollar to 155 yen, and long-term government bond yields increased to 1.85% [1]. - Over 60% of market participants anticipated a clear signal regarding interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, suggesting that a decision not to raise rates could lead to a significant depreciation of the yen [2]. Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The Bank of Japan refrained from raising interest rates in October due to political pressures, as the new Prime Minister advocated for active fiscal policies and opposed abandoning loose monetary policies [4]. - The current economic environment in Japan is characterized by stagnation and persistent inflation, complicating the Bank of Japan's decision-making regarding interest rate adjustments [5]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The potential interest rate hike is viewed as a monetary policy adjustment rather than a tightening, as Japan's real interest rates remain low [5]. - The actual decision to raise rates in December will depend on market reactions and the broader economic environment, including the performance of the yen and long-term bond yields [5].