人民币汇率近期何以如此强势？

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, reaching a high of 7.06440, indicating a trend of independent movement away from the USD index since September 2023 [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has shown an overall appreciation trend against the USD this year, increasing by 3.59% year-to-date, while depreciating against the Euro by 8% and the GBP by 2% [1] - Since mid-September, despite a rebound in the USD, the RMB has continued to appreciate slightly against both the USD and other major currencies, reflecting a complex exchange rate dynamic amid global trade restructuring [1] Group 2: Trade and Foreign Exchange Dynamics - China's trade remains robust, with total imports and exports reaching $5.26 trillion, a growth of 7.7%, and a trade surplus of $727.7 billion, expanding by 43.8% [2] - The significant increase in bank settlement surplus, with September's surplus reaching $51 billion, the largest monthly surplus since December 2020, indicates strong foreign exchange inflows [2][3] Group 3: Influencing Factors on Market Expectations - The decline of the USD index by 8.33% this year has led to a loss of patience among companies holding USD, contributing to the large settlement surplus [3] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the likelihood of interest rate cuts, have influenced the USD's depreciation and the RMB's appreciation [3][4] - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair with a focus on immediate rate cuts could further impact market expectations and the USD's value [4] Group 4: Regulatory Influence on RMB Valuation - Regulatory actions, such as the issuance of central bank bills, suggest a preference for a controlled appreciation of the RMB, reducing risks associated with bullish positions on the currency [5] - The recent RMB appreciation is attributed not only to the USD's decline but also to internal factors, although uncertainties remain regarding future export strength and external demand [5]