Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, but the scope for cuts is limited, indicating that the bottom for the dollar has formed. Long-term, demand for safe-haven assets, anti-inflation needs, and concerns over the credibility of the dollar will continue to drive precious metal prices upward [1][2]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals have shown strong performance this year, with gold and silver prices rising together and reaching historical highs. Gold led the price increase in the first half of the year, while silver accelerated its gains after June, outperforming gold [1]. - Recent factors such as tight supply of silver and rising expectations for overseas rate cuts have contributed to the acceleration of silver prices [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Actions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been pushed back, with increasing concerns about inflationary pressures from tariffs. The current rate-cutting cycle began in September 2024, with a total cut of 150 basis points by the end of October 2025, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold eight meetings in 2026, and while the rate-cutting cycle continues, the potential for further cuts is expected to be limited due to inflation concerns [2]. Group 3: Fund Holdings and Silver Demand - Fund holdings in SLV silver ETF have shown a significant increase in 2025, breaking a trend of declining holdings. The demand for silver as an investment has become more attractive, leading to a rapid increase in SLV holdings to the highest levels since 2021 [3]. - Global silver supply remains volatile, primarily influenced by mining changes. Although silver recycling has increased since 2024, the overall impact on supply is limited due to the nature of silver mining [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand for Silver - Industrial demand for silver has been growing, particularly in the photovoltaic and solar energy sectors. However, the growth rate is expected to decline as the peak consumption period for these industries has passed [4]. - Despite the anticipated decline in industrial demand, the investment appeal of silver is expected to rise, potentially expanding physical investment demand [4].
供应结构稳定 白银涨势未完
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-03 00:13