投资圈“炸锅” 知名经济学家洪灏：已在4500美元高位清仓黄金 泡沫必破！

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market has been highlighted by economist Hong Hao's claim of selling gold at $4,500 per ounce, which contradicts market data showing that gold prices have not reached this level, raising questions about the validity of his statement [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Hong Hao has historically been a strong advocate for gold, suggesting that it serves as a hedge against currency devaluation, and previously predicted prices could reach $10,000 [4]. - In mid-October, he warned that gold was in an "overbought" state, indicating that the risks outweighed the potential rewards, which was later reflected in a decline in gold prices [4][5]. - By November, he suggested that the market was experiencing a "high volatility phase" and advised investors to wait for better buying opportunities [5]. Group 2: Controversy and Data Discrepancies - The controversy peaked when Hong Hao claimed to have sold gold at $4,500 while the market was around $4,200, leading to skepticism as this price point had not been recorded in mainstream market data [5][6]. - Investigations into COMEX futures data revealed that certain non-mainstream contracts did reach prices above $4,500, but these contracts had low liquidity and trading volumes, raising doubts about the validity of Hong's claim [6][7]. - Experts suggested that Hong's statement might have been a "colloquial expression" rather than a precise trading figure, as the main trading activity typically occurs in more liquid contracts [7]. Group 3: Business Ventures - Despite the controversy surrounding his trading claims, Hong Hao has successfully transitioned into a commercial role, launching a paid knowledge-sharing platform that has generated approximately 9.9 million yuan in revenue within a month [8][9]. - His platform has attracted over 11,000 members, capitalizing on the demand for professional investment guidance amid market fluctuations [9][14]. - The ongoing debate about his trading accuracy contrasts with his growing influence and commercial success in the financial sector [14].