Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2025-12-03 00:21Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to enter a new cycle by 2026, with investment opportunities highlighted based on the resonance of trading and fundamentals, emphasizing high dividend and low valuation stocks, companies with capacity growth, and coking coal benefiting from price stabilization and profit improvement [1] Group 1: Price Review - Coal prices showed a trend of "low before high," with significant year-on-year declines in 2025, but a recovery began after June, leading to an overall upward trend [1] - The average price of thermal coal (Q5500) was 695 CNY/ton, down 19% year-on-year, while coking coal averaged 1497 CNY/ton, down 28% year-on-year [1] - Long-term contract prices for Qinhuangdao Q5500 were 678 CNY/ton, down 3% year-on-year, and Henan's main coking coal was 1546 CNY/ton, down 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Supply Side - The exit of "pre-approval capacity increase" is expected to strengthen supply contraction, with a potential reduction of over 100 million tons in 2026 due to stricter safety regulations and production self-discipline [2] - The import of coal is expected to be limited, with a total of 38.7623 million tons imported from January to October 2025, a decrease of 11% year-on-year, indicating a reduced role of imports as a supply regulator [2] - The growth of coal transportation from Xinjiang has shown signs of fatigue, with a production scale of 44.5 million tons in 2025, up 2.8% year-on-year, and external transportation of 8.518 million tons, up 6.4% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Demand Side - The demand for electricity coal is expected to return to growth in 2026, with a projected increase in coal consumption for power generation if electricity generation growth exceeds 3% [4] - Steel demand is anticipated to be supported by a growth plan aiming for an average annual increase of around 4% in the steel industry from 2025 to 2026, which will drive coal demand [4] - The chemical sector is expected to maintain growth in coal consumption due to the strategic development of coal chemical projects and high oil prices [5] - The impact of the construction materials sector on coal consumption is expected to weaken, with signs of stabilization in the real estate market and increased infrastructure investment [6]