张尧浠：美联储更宽松周期前景升温、金价预酝酿进一步牛市

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is increasing, which is expected to support a further bull market for gold prices [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 2, international gold prices opened at $4231.36 per ounce, reached a high of $4235.97, and then fell to a low of $4163.81 before closing at $4205.63, resulting in a daily decline of $25.73 or 0.61% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $72.16, indicating volatility in the market [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Technical resistance and profit-taking led to a decline in gold prices, but support buying and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve under Trump's potential nominee for chair, Hassett, helped gold prices recover [3][5]. - The upcoming U.S. ADP employment figures and core PCE inflation data are anticipated to influence market expectations for interest rate cuts, which could further support gold prices [3][5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The U.S. dollar index is expected to remain under pressure, which is favorable for gold prices, as it is trading below key moving averages [5]. - Strong demand for gold from global central banks continues, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October, a 36% increase month-over-month, marking the largest monthly net demand since early 2025 [5]. - Geopolitical tensions are also providing a solid support base for gold prices [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a bullish trend for gold, with the need to break above the $4400 level to open further upside potential [8]. - Short-term pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities, with historical trends suggesting that corrections during rate-cutting cycles often lead to significant upward movements [6][8]. Group 5: Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4195 and $4180, while resistance levels are at $4220 and $4245 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $58.10 and $57.70, with resistance at $59.00 and $59.70 [10].