美财长预测2026年美国经济增长4%，与经合组织1.7%预期存分歧

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts a 4% economic growth for the US by 2026, which has garnered significant market attention [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Bessent emphasizes that 2026 will see substantial tax refunds and a combination of "real wage growth" and "low-inflation growth" [1] - The OECD forecasts that the US economy will grow by 2% in 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.8% [1] - The anticipated economic growth in 2026 is projected at 1.7% due to enhanced tariff effects, contrasting sharply with Bessent's 4% prediction [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the current rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower rates only twice before then [1] - The Federal Reserve is tasked with balancing inflation pressures from tariffs against a weakening labor market, which will influence future economic trends [1] - The new Federal Reserve Chair, to be appointed by Bessent, will play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy that aligns with fiscal policy to achieve growth expectations [2] Group 3: Technological Impact on Growth - Investment related to artificial intelligence is driving industrial production growth in the US and many Asian economies, injecting new momentum into economic development [2]