沥青价格走低 等待冬储启动

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt futures prices are experiencing a continuous decline due to dual pressures from costs and demand, with oversupply expectations weakening cost support from international crude oil prices and a decrease in demand as northern regions conclude their construction activities [1][3][9]. Group 1: Cost Factors - The expectation of oversupply has led to a downward shift in international crude oil prices, reducing cost support for asphalt [1][2]. - As of November 30, the average capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 34.0%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - The asphalt production in November is estimated at 2.23 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.9% [3]. Group 2: Demand Factors - With the temperature dropping, the construction demand in northern regions is tapering off, leading to intensified competition in the spot market for limited demand [1][6]. - The overall demand is expected to decline as northern regions weaken while southern regions maintain relatively stable demand [6][9]. - As of December 1, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample plants in China was 626,000 tons, a decrease of 14.01% from the end of October [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The asphalt market is characterized by low price fluctuations and weak supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on the winter storage market [8][9]. - The current market prices for 70 asphalt in various regions are reported as follows: Shandong and Hebei at 2960-2970 CNY/ton, Guangdong at 3030 CNY/ton, and Jiangsu-Zhejiang at 3150-3220 CNY/ton [8]. - There are differing opinions on the winter storage market, with some believing that refinery profit conditions may allow for larger storage volumes than last year, while others anticipate constraints due to weak international crude oil prices and subdued market demand expectations [8][9].