联合国报告：明年世界经济活动或保持“低迷”

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report predicts a "sluggish" global economic activity in 2024, influenced by trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.6% this year, maintaining this rate until 2026, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the pre-pandemic average [1][3] Economic Risks - The report highlights risks in the economic and financial markets, particularly due to unpredictable tariff policies under the Trump administration [3] - Developing economies remain vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and punitive tariffs imposed by the US on their exports [3] Global Economic Disparities - There is a concerning gap among "Global South" economies, which account for over 40% of global GDP, half of foreign direct investment flows, and approximately 45% of goods trade, yet remain marginalized in global equity and bond markets [3] Trade and Financial Interdependence - Approximately 72% of global trade is governed by WTO's most-favored-nation rules, while 90% of international trade relies on a concentrated global financial system [3][4] - The interdependence in the short term helps avoid disruptions and signals policy adjustments, as seen in the market reactions following Trump's tariff announcements [4] Currency Dynamics - The report discusses the imbalance between the rules-based global trade matrix and the centralized global financial system, emphasizing the dominance of the US dollar [5] - Despite a decline in the dollar's share of international reserves, no suitable challenger has emerged to replace it, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization without a viable alternative currency [5]