南方基金：2025即将收官，2026年大类资产如何配置？

Group 1: Domestic Macro Economic Analysis - The domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is expected to start smoothly, with significant achievements in high-quality development. The economic growth target is anticipated to remain around 5% [3] - The fiscal policy is likely to maintain a proactive tone, with a projected government budget deficit rate of 4% and new special bond issuance of 4.4-5 trillion yuan [4] - Monetary policy is expected to continue a supportive stance, with potential for 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 1-2 interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points [4] Group 2: International Macro Economic Analysis - The U.S. economy is projected to stabilize in 2026, supported by a resumption of fiscal expansion, with the deficit rate expected to return to 6.5% [5] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates 2-3 times in 2026, despite inflation remaining sticky [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The A-share market is viewed positively, with macro factors such as market valuation, fundamental recovery, and supportive policies likely to strengthen A-shares [6] - The growth style is currently overvalued, but opportunities remain in the technology manufacturing sector driven by the AI wave [6] - Focus on high-prosperity sectors such as the technology industry and materials with improved supply-demand dynamics is recommended [6] Group 4: Bond Market and Commodity Outlook - The bond market is expected to have limited overall odds, with yields likely to remain in a low volatility range [8] - Commodities like copper and gold are anticipated to rise, supported by resilient U.S. demand and domestic policy measures [8]