还没想好？特朗普计划明年初公布新美联储主席人选

Core Viewpoint - The speculation regarding the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve has intensified following President Trump's recent statements, with a potential announcement expected in early 2026 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chairperson Selection - Trump indicated he plans to announce the new Federal Reserve chairperson in early 2026, which contrasts with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's earlier suggestion of a timeline around Christmas [1] - The current chair, Jerome Powell, is set to see his term expire in May next year, and there is speculation he may remain on the board [1] - The candidate list has narrowed from 11 to 5, with potential candidates including Hassett, Fed Governor Waller, and Vice Chair Bowman [1][4] Group 2: Candidate Profile - Kevin Hassett - Kevin Hassett, 63, holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and has previously served as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve and a professor at Columbia University [4] - Hassett has been a proponent of monetary easing to stimulate growth and aligns closely with Trump's economic views, advocating for tax cuts, fiscal expansion, deregulation, and low interest rates [4] - Analysts suggest that if Hassett is appointed, he may lower the federal funds rate from the current range of 3.75% to 4% to below 3% without significantly threatening the Fed's independence [4] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Citic Securities emphasizes that the unemployment rate will be crucial for the Fed's decision on interest rates in December, with expectations of a potential rate cut of 25 basis points [5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is currently at 87.6%, reflecting a growing expectation among market participants [5]