12月美股策略：风高浪急之后重拾升势

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is influenced by limited timely data on employment, inflation, and retail sales, with a focus on preventing labor market deterioration [1][9] - Investor confidence remains optimistic despite challenges such as government shutdowns and AI bubble discussions, with a positive sentiment index of 4.0 [1][11] - The S&P 500 index has shown double-digit year-on-year earnings growth in the first three quarters, with a projected growth of 10.8% for Q4 [3][21] Group 2 - Google's advancements in AI, particularly with its Gemini 3 model, have contributed to market rebounds, while concerns about an AI bubble persist among fund managers [2][30] - The market is experiencing a rotation between high and low valuation sectors, with healthcare and communication services leading gains [17][47] - The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey indicates that 53% of fund managers believe there is an AI bubble, with 45% identifying it as a significant tail risk [25][44] Group 3 - The VIX index peaked at 26.4 points in early November but declined as the market stabilized, indicating a rise in risk appetite [47] - The healthcare sector, with a ten-year PE-TTM percentile of 69%, and communication services benefiting from Google's AI advancements are expected to perform well [47] - The overall market narrative will continue to revolve around Federal Reserve monetary policy and AI developments, with a balanced investment strategy recommended [47]