未来10年中国房地产格局预测

Overall Direction - The real estate sector in China is transitioning from an "era of real estate" to a "post-real estate era" between 2025 and 2035, driven by factors such as population peak, urbanization slowdown, and a shift in policy focus from stimulus to restructuring [1][2][4][5]. Urban Landscape - The real estate market will no longer operate as a "one-size-fits-all" across the country, but will instead amplify urban differentiation, with stronger cities becoming even more dominant while weaker ones experience prolonged declines [6][10]. - Urbanization will continue, with the urbanization rate expected to stabilize around 75% by 2035, indicating that population movement will increasingly favor major metropolitan areas [7][8]. - In first-tier and strong second-tier cities, the focus will shift to "scale reduction and core preservation," leading to a divide between prime assets and excess inventory [9]. - In ordinary second and third-tier cities, the market will resemble a "just-demand consumer good" rather than an investment target, with a focus on sellability over price [10]. Product Structure - The housing structure will evolve into a three-tier system comprising market-based purchasing, rental markets, and guaranteed housing, marking the end of relying solely on market-driven commodity housing [14][15]. Developer Landscape - The era of private real estate giants is coming to an end, with state-owned enterprises and local government financing vehicles taking the lead in the market [16][17][20]. - Developers will be categorized into three types: construction teams, operators, and platform companies, with a focus on meeting the self-occupancy and improvement needs of middle-income families [18][19]. Pricing and Transactions - The market will see a "volume reduction and price stability" trend, with the era of dramatic price fluctuations coming to an end [21]. - The gap between new and second-hand housing prices will persist, with second-hand homes gradually becoming the dominant market segment [22]. Financial and Asset Allocation - The proportion of housing in financial and household asset allocation will decline, with a shift towards diversified asset management including bank wealth management, public funds, and pension products [23][24]. - Housing will remain a significant asset but will no longer be the sole cornerstone of family wealth, as it integrates with other financial assets [27]. Implications for Different Stakeholders - For ordinary families, housing remains important but is no longer the only means of upward mobility; the choice of city and location is paramount [28]. - For investment buyers, high-leverage speculation is increasingly seen as self-destructive, with meaningful opportunities concentrated in a few cities and areas [28]. - For real estate professionals, the era of solely selling homes is over; skills in planning, renovation, operation, and asset management will be essential for future growth [28]. - For local governments, real estate is no longer an endless growth engine but requires careful management of existing and new housing to maintain balance [28].