估值低，仓位轻！摩根大通上调中国股市评级，看好AI应用加速和反内卷

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is optimistic about the recovery momentum of the Chinese stock market, driven by factors such as the accelerated application of artificial intelligence and the "anti-involution" policies aimed at improving corporate profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - JPMorgan has upgraded its rating for the Chinese stock market from "neutral" to "overweight," indicating that the market is in the early stages of recovery with acceptable valuations and light investor positions providing a solid foundation for potential gains [1][3]. - The report predicts a target of 100 points for the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026, representing a 19% upside from the report's release, with bullish and bearish scenarios set at 120 points and 80 points, respectively [1]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The upgrade reflects JPMorgan's positive outlook on a series of structural changes in the Chinese market, including the rapid application of AI, "anti-involution" policies aimed at enhancing corporate profitability, and increasing shareholder returns [2][8]. - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" policy is a significant shift aimed at curbing destructive price competition and restoring profitability across various sectors, including traditional industries and emerging fields like solar energy and e-commerce [7][8]. Group 3: Valuation and Positioning - JPMorgan believes that the current moment is favorable for positioning in the Chinese stock market, as it remains at the bottom of the cycle, with improved risk-reward ratios due to long-term adjustments [3][6]. - Compared to other major markets, China's valuation levels are still at or near the average levels post-global financial crisis, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3]. Group 4: Fund Allocation and Liquidity - Global active funds are still underweight in Chinese stocks, indicating significant potential for capital inflows once market sentiment shifts [6]. - The report notes a shift in domestic asset allocation, with early signs of households moving from cash and deposits to equity assets, supported by favorable macro policies and liquidity changes [11][12]. Group 5: AI and Technological Innovation - AI applications and technological innovation are viewed as key drivers for the upward momentum of the Chinese market, with 2025 expected to be a pivotal year for generative AI applications [7]. - The report highlights China's holistic approach to AI, which encompasses power production, open-source models, domestic applications, and semiconductor development [7]. Group 6: Corporate Actions - Chinese companies, particularly state-owned enterprises, are actively enhancing shareholder returns, with significant increases in stock buybacks and dividend payments observed since 2024 [9][11].