A股关注：美联储降息预期升至86%，市场聚焦本周关键变盘窗口

Group 1 - The core expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has surged to 86%, driven by solid economic data and policy signals, nearly doubling from 32.7% on November 20 [1][2] - Key factors supporting this expectation include inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target, a cooling job market with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, dovish statements from Fed officials, and signs of economic growth pressure [2][4] Group 2 - A critical week for the A-share market is approaching, with significant events from December 2 to December 9 that could reshape market expectations, including speeches from Fed officials and key economic data releases [4][5] - The most pivotal event will be the Fed's December meeting on December 9, which will determine whether to cut rates and provide guidance on monetary policy for 2026, impacting global liquidity pricing [5] Group 3 - If the Fed cuts rates, the primary impact on A-shares will be global liquidity easing and foreign capital inflow, benefiting several sectors [6] - The technology growth sector is expected to benefit from lower financing costs, particularly in semiconductors, AI, and new energy, with significant inflows into the electronic industry [6][7] - The resource cycle and gold sectors may also gain, as rate cuts typically weaken the dollar and boost commodity prices, while gold becomes more attractive as a safe-haven asset [6][7] Group 4 - Domestic policy support is evident, with the People's Bank of China implementing rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, creating a favorable environment for foreign capital inflow [7] - Retail investors are advised to focus on key sectors, manage positions carefully, and avoid pitfalls such as blindly chasing high-flying stocks or ignoring policy risks [8][9] - The focus should be on sectors with strong fundamentals, such as leading electronic and new energy stocks, as well as undervalued blue-chip stocks that offer dividends [8][9]