官方最新监测预警：25个省份猪肉价格下跌，消费或难以支撑猪价？

Core Insights - The average price of pork in China has decreased to 22.86 yuan/kg as of the fourth week of November, marking a 0.7% decline from the previous week and a 19.3% drop year-on-year, indicating a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) scenario in the market [1] - As of December 3, the average price of external three-yuan live pigs is 11.54 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg, but the upward momentum is weak, with the number of provinces experiencing price increases dropping from 25 to 16 [3][4] - The supply of pigs has reached historical highs, with slaughter volumes from January to October 2025 reaching 32.289 million heads, significantly higher than previous years, which is contributing to the current price trends [6] Price Trends - The average pork price in China is currently 22.86 yuan/kg, down 0.7% week-on-week and 19.3% year-on-year [1] - On December 3, the average price of external three-yuan live pigs was 11.54 yuan/kg, with a recent trend of three consecutive days of price increases, although the daily increase has diminished [3] - The number of provinces with rising prices has decreased, indicating a broader decline in pork prices across the country [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in slaughter volume is a significant factor in the current pork price situation, with slaughter numbers for 2025 showing a substantial increase compared to previous years [6] - The concentration of production in the industry is also rising, with more large-scale slaughter enterprises contributing to the supply [6] - The current high supply levels may limit the potential for significant price increases in the near term, leading to a volatile price environment [6]