CHINA GAS HOLDINGS(384.HK)：DOWNGRADE TO SELL AFTER YET ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING EARNINGS

Core Viewpoint - The net profit of China Gas decreased by 24% year-on-year to HK$1,334 million in the first half of FY26, primarily due to a significant drop in new connection profit and sluggish performance in gas sales and value-added services [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - New residential connections fell by 25% year-on-year to 676,000 households in 1HFY26, with segmental revenue dipping only 5% year-on-year, but segmental EBIT plummeting by 38% year-on-year due to lower margins [2] - EBIT from natural gas sales declined by 5% year-on-year, with retail gas sales volume dropping by 1% year-on-year, attributed to weak commercial and industrial demand [3] - EBIT from the value-added service business, previously a fast-growing segment, only increased by 1% year-on-year as sales related to new property projects fell sharply, offsetting retail sales growth [4] Group 2: Future Expectations - Earnings are expected to surge by 48% half-on-half in 2HFY26, as the second half typically records 50-60% higher gas sales volume due to the heat supply season [5] - The company’s dividend yield stands at 5.8%, but no upside in its dividend per share is anticipated as it is already distributing over 80% of its earnings [5] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been lowered from HK$7.77 to HK$7.50, reflecting cuts in earnings forecasts, with the new target price equating to 12.2 times FY26 earnings [6]