机构看金市：12月3日

Core Viewpoint - The long-term strategic value of gold is highlighted, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increasing demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market anticipates an 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, up from 30%, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold [1]. - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. debt expansion and trade tensions, are enhancing the demand for gold as a strategic asset [1]. - Recent price movements in precious metals indicate a strong recovery after short-term profit-taking, reflecting underlying strength and interest in these assets [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Risks - Investors are cautioned about potential technical corrections in precious metals due to crowded long positions and the nearing of fully priced rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - Silver and platinum are noted to have greater price elasticity compared to gold, indicating that any market corrections could be more pronounced in these metals [2]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while there is strong demand for precious metals, caution is warranted to avoid irrational investment risks [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand are expected to support higher price levels for precious metals in the medium to long term [2]. - The potential for a peaceful resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could impact gold prices, with any escalation likely to drive prices higher [3]. - The technical and fundamental backdrop for silver appears increasingly constructive, suggesting a potential for continued outperformance in the precious metals market [4].