Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-03 04:36Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant restructuring and bubble clearing as of late 2025, with prices of premium products like Moutai dropping below official guidance and high inventory levels leading to widespread losses among distributors [1][3][5] Price Collapse and Inventory Issues - The price system in the liquor industry is experiencing a comprehensive loosening, with Moutai's wholesale price falling below 1600 yuan and e-commerce platforms offering prices as low as 1299 yuan, representing a decline of over 50% from its peak in 2021 [3][5] - This "benchmark effect" has spread across the industry, with major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also seeing significant price drops, leading to over 60% of liquor companies facing price inversions [5][7] - The industry is facing severe inventory issues, with turnover days reaching 900 days and a 300% increase in private inventory circulation, indicating a collapse of speculative buying expectations [5][7] Performance Data - The liquor industry reported its worst quarterly performance in nearly a decade in Q3 2025, with 20 listed companies in A-shares generating a total revenue of 3177.79 billion yuan (down 5.90% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1225.71 billion yuan (down 6.93% year-on-year) [7][9] - Over 80% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Wuliangye's revenue plummeting by 52% and Yanghe's profit dropping by 158% [7] Changing Consumer Logic - The core issue facing the industry is the failure of traditional growth logic, as government and business consumption models have become ineffective due to strict regulations and economic downturns [9][11] - Younger consumers are increasingly rejecting the traditional liquor culture, leading to a significant decline in white liquor consumption at social events [9][11] - Consumer demand is shifting from a focus on social consumption to a balance of social and personal enjoyment, with new consumption scenarios like casual drinking and home consumption emerging as growth areas [11][12] Strategic Adjustments - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies maintaining growth, with a revenue increase of 5% in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to its product advantages and market strategies [15][18] - The company plans to adopt a "dual-line" strategy focusing on traditional markets and expanding into younger and international markets, with new product lines aimed at attracting younger consumers [15][18] Industry Transformation - The liquor industry is transitioning from a focus on investment to a focus on quality, with a projected decline in consumption volume over the next decade [19][20] - Companies are expected to prioritize producing better quality liquor and adapting to changing consumer demands, with a notable increase in the storage of high-quality base liquor [20] - The industry is moving towards a new phase characterized by social drinking, personal enjoyment, and investment collection, necessitating higher standards for product innovation and brand management [19][20]