CMF中国宏观经济分析与预测报告（2025-2026）-中国宏观经济论坛

Core Insights - The report from the China Macroeconomy Forum (CMF) analyzes the performance of China's economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan and forecasts the outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on growth trends, structural characteristics, risks, opportunities, and policy directions [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance in 2025 - In 2025, China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of approximately 4.9%, demonstrating a "front high, back low" trend due to external tariff impacts and internal real estate adjustments [1][2]. - Industrial production remains robust, with strong performance in manufacturing and services, while external demand exceeded expectations with a 4.5% increase in exports and a trade surplus surpassing $1.16 trillion [1][2][3]. - Domestic demand is notably weak, with consumption growth declining to 3% in the second half of the year and fixed asset investment decreasing by 2.5% [1][2][3]. Group 2: Transition to High-Quality Development - The 14th Five-Year Plan marked a critical transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with the economy surpassing 134 trillion yuan and R&D investment intensity rising to 2.68% [2][3]. - Key challenges include insufficient domestic demand, weak original innovation, tightening fiscal constraints, and regional development disparities [2][3]. Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges in 2026 - The beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026 presents three major opportunities: proactive planning, more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and initial signs of recovery in microeconomic entities [2][3]. - However, challenges remain, including declining export growth, investment slowdown, spillover effects from real estate adjustments, declining employment quality, limited fiscal effectiveness, and credit risks in small financial institutions [2][3]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests setting a cross-cycle target of 4.5%-5% real GDP growth, 1%-3% CPI inflation, and over 5% nominal GDP growth as a guiding principle for macroeconomic policy during the 15th Five-Year Plan [3][4]. - Emphasis is placed on expanding domestic demand, optimizing macro policy combinations, and implementing moderately loose monetary policies to stimulate consumption and investment [3][4].