新高教集团(02001.HK)：成本高峰已过 盈利能力即将反弹

Core Viewpoint - New Higher Education Group reported a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, with adjusted net profit reaching 812 million yuan, up 5.2%, aligning with expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company maintained a student enrollment of 139,000, a slight decrease of 0.6% from fiscal year 2024, while the proportion of undergraduate new students increased by 4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Average tuition fees rose by 8.1% to 16,700 yuan per academic year, contributing to revenue growth [1] - Total revenue costs for fiscal year 2025 were 1.68 billion yuan, up 9.2%, with labor costs increasing by 14.7% to 1.08 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Cost Management and Investment - The company has increased its investment in educational infrastructure, with depreciation and amortization costs rising by 10.8% to 260 million yuan [2] - Capital expenditures peaked at 920 million yuan in fiscal year 2024 but decreased to 690 million yuan in fiscal year 2025, indicating a potential end to the rapid growth phase of costs [3] - The student-to-teacher ratio for fiscal year 2025 was approximately 19.1:1, close to the regulatory standard [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a rebound in profitability as the period of rapid cost growth has ended, with gross margin expected to expand starting from fiscal year 2026 [3] - Profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 have been raised to 880 million yuan and 1 billion yuan, respectively, with an additional forecast of 1.14 billion yuan for fiscal year 2028 [3] - The target price has been adjusted to 3.38 HKD from the previous 2.99 HKD, maintaining a buy rating [3]