中通快递-W(2057.HK)2025年三季报点评：业务量平滑增长 反内卷带动盈利改善

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express's business volume growth rate has slowed down in Q3 2025, but profitability has improved due to anti-involution measures. Cost efficiency continues to rise, although future cost reduction potential may narrow. The company's market share has slightly declined, but its leading position remains stable [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express reported revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. Total business volume reached 9.57 billion parcels, up 9.8%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to Q2 and is slightly behind peers [2]. - Net profit and adjusted net profit for Q3 were 2.54 billion yuan and 2.51 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 5%. The improvement in profit growth is attributed to the recovery of industry price levels and optimization of the company's business structure [2]. - The company has revised its annual business volume guidance down to 38.2-38.7 billion parcels from the previous 38.8-40.1 billion parcels, anticipating stable growth of around 8% in Q4 [2]. Group 2: Cost Efficiency - In Q3 2025, the cost per parcel was 0.91 yuan, an increase of 0.09 yuan year-on-year. The transportation cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% to 0.34 yuan, benefiting from economies of scale and improved route planning [3]. - Sorting costs per parcel fell by 1.9% to 0.25 yuan, primarily due to the benefits from automation equipment investments. Although the growth rate of business volume is slowing, the company is expected to maintain a downward trend in transportation and sorting costs, albeit at a reduced rate [3]. Group 3: Market Position - ZTO Express's market share in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline of 0.64 and 0.13 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively. Despite this, the company retains its leading position in the industry [3]. - The ongoing anti-involution regulations are expected to shift industry competition from quantity expansion to quality improvement, favoring leading express companies with high-quality services and mature product systems [3].