白银高位企稳突破58美元，供应缺口与降息预期筑牢牛市根基

Group 1 - Silver prices have recently achieved a significant breakthrough, briefly rising to $58.819 per ounce, marking a 10% increase since last Friday and pushing the annual gain above 100% [3] - Despite a subsequent price pullback to around $57, the ongoing tight supply situation and low inventory levels at the Shanghai exchange continue to support silver's strong performance this year [3] - Silver has become the best-performing commodity tracked, with a strong buying interest returning after profit-taking led to a temporary price decline [3][4] Group 2 - The recent surge in silver prices has not been driven by new factors; the core logic remains the tight supply situation at the Shanghai exchange [4] - Market rumors regarding potential tariffs on silver by the U.S. government do not align with the timing of the recent price increase, indicating they are not the main driver of the current rally [4] - Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting have shifted, with a 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which typically boosts the appeal of precious metals [4]