美印谈判受阻，印度央行紧急“护盘”失败，卢比失守90关口

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee is facing significant depreciation against the US Dollar, breaking the psychological barrier of 90, amid uncertainties surrounding US-India trade negotiations, leading to increased capital outflow pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - On December 3, the Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.3%, reaching a historical low of 90.1575 against the US Dollar, driven by market concerns over stalled trade talks [1]. - The Rupee's decline is closely linked to the fluctuating sentiment surrounding US-India trade negotiations, which have been inconsistent throughout the year [4]. - The Indian central bank's interventions have been largely ineffective in stabilizing the Rupee, as market participants continue to expect further depreciation [6]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The ongoing trade negotiations between India and the US have faced multiple setbacks, with the US imposing higher-than-expected tariffs on Indian goods and threatening punitive measures due to India's energy purchases from Russia [4][5]. - Despite India engaging in trade talks with multiple economies, the uncertainty surrounding the US agreement remains a focal point for the market, exerting pressure on exports and the currency [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Central Bank Response - Market participants are exhibiting a strong bearish sentiment towards the Rupee, with importers accelerating their demand for US Dollars, complicating the central bank's efforts to stabilize the currency [6]. - Analysts suggest that if the Rupee closes above 90, speculative pressures may increase, potentially pushing the currency towards 91 [6]. - The persistent weakness of the Rupee is likely to influence the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decisions, with expectations that the central bank may opt to maintain interest rates in light of currency volatility [7].